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991.
A modified global model for predicting the tritium concentration in precipitation has been developed using the dataset of International Atomic Energy Agency/the World Meteorological Organization (IAEA/WMO) over the period from 1960 to 2005. The tritium concentration in precipitation and its history can be estimated at any location using the model. The modified global model of tritium in precipitation (MGMTP) here presented has higher accuracy than the global model of tritium in precipitation (GMTP) developed by Doney et al. ( 1992 ). The new model is not only more appropriate for a particular station but also applicable for the un‐normalized observations directly. Another advantage of MGMTP is that it can estimate a longer history (from 1960 to 2005) of tritium content in precipitation than GMTP (from 1960 to 1986). The seasonal cycle of tritium in precipitation has also been modelled in the form of a simple cosine function with five parameters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
992.
Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, these effects are quantified using three methods, namely, multi‐regression, hydrologic sensitivity analysis, and hydrologic model simulation. A conceptual framework is defined to separate the effects. As an example, the change in annual runoff from the semiarid Laohahe basin (18 112 km2) in northern China was investigated. Non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test, Pettitt test, and precipitation‐runoff double cumulative curve method were adopted to identify the trends and change‐points in the annual runoff from 1964 to 2008 by first dividing the long‐term runoff series into a natural period (1964–1979) and a human‐induced period (1980–2008). Then the three quantifying methods were calibrated and calculated, and they provided consistent estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the human‐induced period. In 1980–2008, human activities were the main factors that reduced runoff with contributions of 89–93%, while the reduction percentages due to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration only ranged from 7 to 11%. For the various effects at different durations, human activities were the main reasons runoff decreased during the two drier periods of 1980–1989 and 2000–2008. Increased runoff during the wetter period of 1990–1999 is mainly attributed to climate variability. This study quantitatively separates the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can serve as a reference for regional water resources assessment and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
993.
This article presents a method for the nonlinear analysis of laterally loaded rigid piles in cohesive soil. The method considers the force and the moment equilibrium to derive the system equations for a rigid pile under a lateral eccentric load. The system equations are then solved using an iteration scheme to obtain the response of the pile. The method considers the nonlinear variation of the ultimate lateral soil resistance with depth and uses a new closed‐form expression proposed in this article to determine the lateral bearing factor. The method also considers the horizontal shear resistance at the pile base, and a bilinear relationship between the shear resistance and the displacement is used. For simplicity, the modulus of horizontal subgrade reaction is assumed to be constant with depth, which is applicable to piles in overconsolidated clay. The nonlinearity of the modulus of horizontal subgrade reaction with pile displacement at ground surface is also considered. The validity of the developed method is demonstrated by comparing its results with those of 3D finite element analysis. The applications of the developed method to analyze five field test piles also show good agreement between the predictions and the experimental results. The developed method offers an alternative approach for simple and effective analysis of laterally loaded rigid piles in cohesive soil. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
994.
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996.
为了探索震前电磁异常现象的物理机制,许多研究注重于分析岩石破裂过程中产生的电磁辐射信号。对花岗岩样品进行单轴加载,变形直至破裂,记录整个过程中产生的电磁辐射(EME)和声发射(AE)信号,对比分析。这里主要从两个方面分析岩石破裂过程中EME信号的特征:①利用非广延分析方法分析EME的能量分布情况,并与b值分析方法对比,推断岩石破裂类型以及裂纹发育过程;②利用统一等待时间定标律分析EME的时间特征,期望获得岩石破裂过程中EME信号等待时间的分布规律。结果表明,在拟合AE和EME信号的能量分布曲线时,发现b值只能拟合AE部分数据,完全不能拟合EME数据,而非广延参数q可以很好地拟合这两类信号。通过对比分析AE和EME信号的等待时间概率密度的分布情况,发现EME信号的集成效果相对较差,可能不满足统一等待时间定标律。 相似文献
997.
998.
针对Noah-MP模型多参数化方案、模拟结果不确定性范围难以确定的特点,选取北疆地区具有代表性的阿勒泰站气象资料作为模型驱动数据,探讨了积雪对多参数化方案的敏感性。在不考虑模型参数和驱动数据不确定性的条件下,设计了集合数为13824的多参数化方案集合模拟试验。选用Natural selection方法对物理过程的敏感性进行分析,并在敏感性分析结果的基础上进一步讨论了模拟结果的不确定性。结果表明:积雪对地表热交换、雨雪分离、土壤温度底层边界条件和第一层积雪或土壤时间方案4个物理过程敏感;在不考虑驱动数据和模型参数不确定性的条件下,多参数化方案集合模拟试验中的不确定性主要来源于敏感物理过程。去除敏感物理过程中能够明显降低模拟性能的参数化方案后,集合模拟结果的不确定性大幅减小。最后,根据分析结果构建了该站雪深和雪水当量模拟的最优参数化方案组合。 相似文献
999.
1000.
青藏高原的冰川为亚洲地区大多数人口提供了重要的水资源,研究青藏高原的冰川活动历史有助于预估未来气候变化条件下的冰川响应。本文通过对羌塘腹地布若错沉积物岩芯的粒度、元素以及总有机碳等指标进行分析,重建了该流域中晚全新世以来的冰川活动历史。结果表明,布若错流域在5.2~4.0 cal.ka B.P.期间,冰川退缩,气候相对温暖;然而,4.0 cal.ka B.P.以来环境逐渐变干,印度季风持续减弱;随着3.2 cal.ka B.P.左右大规模的冰川前进,布若错流域进入新冰期,并受到较强西风的影响,气候寒冷干旱;1.3 cal.ka B.P.以来,流域内冰川仍然维持着较大规模,然而湖面却略有升高,可能反映了西风带来了一定的降水。此外,该流域存在4次显著的冰川前进事件,它们分别发生在3.6~3.4 cal.ka B.P.、3.2~2.3 cal.ka B.P.、1.9~1.7 cal.ka B.P.和0.4~0.1 cal.ka B.P.。这4次冷期与青藏高原其他古气候记录对应较好,这种频繁发生的冷事件可能与太阳辐射的长期衰减以及太阳活动的周期性变化有关,热带辐合带的持续南退是季风持续减弱的重要原因;此外,中晚全新世北大西洋的气候变化通过增强的西风环流对该流域产生影响。 相似文献